Possible Republican Vice Presidential Data

The 3rd republican debates are tonight.  There are still so many candidates that there are 2 debates.  There are 10 candidates in the main debate,  4 in the debate that precedes it and 1 candidate, Jim Gilmore who has not been in a debate since August.

I have been following these debates and the events leading up to them for some time now.  Last week the DesMoines register/Bloomberg poll  came out for Iowa.  I reviewed the data from the poll and am using that data to reflect if any of the 15 candidates currently running might appeal as possible VP contenders in 2016 if they do not get the nomination for the top spot.  Here's what I think.



There were several questions on the poll regarding favor-ability issues such as who would you never support or name up to 3 candidates who you want to drop out of the race.  I have decided that anyone who was in the top 5 in any of those lists would probably not make an attractive VP option because if prospective voters want him or her out of the race now they won't want that person to be just a heartbeat away from the presidency.

The 7 candidates with top marks at being unfavorable or unwanted are Lindsey Graham, George Pataki, Jim Gilmore, Chris Christie,  Jeb Bush, Rand Paul, and Donald Trump.  That list may be a little surprising since Trump came in 2nd in the poll for who people would choose as President with 19% and Bush and Paul picked up 5% of support each tying them for 5th.  The problem is that more people wanted those 7 to drop out than those picking them first.  Heres a quick snap shot

Candidate (% picked 1st/% wants to drop out)
Trump (19/25)
Bush  (5/22)
Paul (5/14)
Christie (1/19)
Gilmore (0/15)
Pataki (0/21)
Graham  (0/22)

The second thing I tried to do was to look at who people were willing to support as President even if they were not currently choosing them first or second.  This poll made it easy for me, as respondents were asked to mark if they could ever vote for candidate and were told not to choose anyone they had previously picked as their first or second choice.  The people who are doing best in this category are also the ones not getting a lot  of support for the top spot.  I think this is a great indicator of who people might be comfortable with on the bottom of a presidential ticket.  The top 5 candidates ever % are Mike Huckabee (60%),  Marco Rubio & Bobby Jindal (55%) and Rick Santorum and Carly Fiorina 53 %

If you take The Ever % and the subtract the never % and then add the undecided % to it the top 7 candidates are

Candidate (E-N+U%)
Rubio (40%)
Fiorina (36%)
Carson (34%)
Jindal (33%)
Huckabee (32%)
Cruz (27 %)
Santorum (20%)

So I believe the polling data can speak to who of the 15 candidates might be perceived as possible vp contenders next summer.  Of course it's only October and the poll was only based on potential Iowa caucus voters.  I hope I hope to delve into future polls to see if my vp hunches are accurate.

Oh and if you added 7 and 7 and got 14 and could not figure out the one candidateof the 15 remaining that I did not mention,  it was Ohio Governor John  Kasich.  4% chose Kasicj 1st or 2nd in the poll, 36 % stated they  would possibly (ever) vote for him and   45 % of respondents said they would never vote for Kasich.

Everybody's Little Book of Everyday Prayers - A Review

A few weeks ago I received a copy of Everybody's Little Book of Everyday Prayers by Cynthia MacGregor.  I won the book on Library Thing as part of their Early Reviewers program.  The caveat of receiving the book for free is to review it.

The book is made up of several sections: an introduction,  general prayers,  prayers for specific occasions, and prayers of supplication and thanks. In the introduction, MacGregor shares her ambitious goal of the book ...

"This book is for you - whatever your religious affiliation- even if you have no religious affiliation at all. This book is for you, whether you're a Protestant, Jew or Catholic,   a member of one of the many religions of the world or an unaffiliated believer ... This book is for you.

Like I said,  very ambitious.  The problem is the book was not for me.  Nor would I feel good about anyone using it as a guide to praying to God.  I feel bad writing this and wish I felt the book had any utility.  MacGregor is very clear in her introduction that any and all of her prayers could be fashioned to fit someone's specific belief.  This unfortunately is not true for me.

A prayer from the general prayers section offers a good example of what I mean...

O God you know what is best for me.  You know what is in my heart and what are the things I want in this life for me, for those I love and for this very world itself.  If it is your will, I pray that my wishes and prayers will be granted, but if it is not Your will, then help me to accept my lot in life and Your plan for me, those I hold dear and for all the others whom I pray.

So what's wrong with that, you might ask? Nothing,  that part is fine. It continues for a few more lines that I mostly agree with and then  ...

and may I never rely too heavily on You, but that remember that it is up to me to do whatever I can toward gaining my goals.

What?!!!?!!!?

Didn't you just say the God knows what is best and knows what is in my heart? To me that means that God is all good and all knowing.  How can we EVER rely too heavily on an all good and all knowing God?

In another prayer in the same section she says   ...

"It is said that God created man in His image, yet how dare we assume that we are in any way God-Like?"

The thing is the person who said God was created in His image is actually God, the person this prayer is intended for.

This brings up one of the main issues I have against this book.   In order to appeal to everyone it loses sight of the main reason we pray.  We need God's help.  The main reason we need God's help is because we are sinners.  There is no mention of sin in this book, sure it talks about temptation and faults but not sin.  There is no mention of Jesus or a Messiah in this book the Catholics and Christians this book was intended for believe in Jesus and the Jews this book was intended for are still waiting for a Messiah.  When Holidays are mentioned Easter and Passover are not mentioned,  Christmas is only mentioned in prayers for taking down and putting up the Christmas Tree. I understand the author's desire to be inclusive and not exclusive.  But there is a prayer in the book for paying off your mortgage wasn't she afraid of offending apartment dwellers?

I hate that I hate this book.  I hoped this book would be written to bring everyone closer to God, but after a careful reading of it, it seems like the author thinks that everyone is okay where they were.  If that was true we would not need to pray.

Summer Reading: Persuasion

I am not the voracious reader that my wife is.  I like books and I have lots of them.  Most of which, I accumulated we got married.  I just don't usually spend as much time reading as she does.  Each  summer, I try to read more than I usually do and as I've tried here before, I will try to review each book I finish this Summer.

Today's Review

Persuasion by Jane Austen



My experience when it comes to reading a book adaption of a movie I have seen or seeing a movie version of a book I have read is generally the same.  I tend to like the version which  I have read or seen first better than the one I've experienced second.  This is not necessarily the Case with Jane Austen's Persuasion.

I really enjoy the film Persuasion and have just recently finished the novel.  I am a big  fan of Austen's works generally through the medium of film.  I found that the reading of Persuasion really enhanced my appreciation of the film.  Much of the dialogue in the movie is pulled verbatim from the book.  The only difference being that it was adapted into dialogue from exposition in the original source.  This task is done artfully by the filmmakers and removes any need of a voiceover narration which would have hampered the cinematic presentation.

On the other hand,  a reading of Persuasion gave me new insights and understanding of her characters some that I had grown to love and others I had learned to disdain in my multiple viewings.  Mary, for example, is a much worse sister to Anne on paper than celluloid.  If you have seen the film, you know that is quite an achievement.  There is also more to like about Captain Wentworth, Mrs. Smith and even Lady Russell.

I would definitely recommend this book to anyone, especially those fond of any Austen work in print or pixel.

Next Time: Post of the Week

You can find this post at both Home School Dad and Your Basic Dave where I am posting concurrently over the summer.

Friday Fragments Donut Edition

Today is National Donut Day.  It is  on the first Friday of June each year.

For Friday Fragments at   Half Past Kissing Time I will share some fragments of donuts with you.


Fragment 1.  Donut History

 Did you ever wonder what donuts have to do with the salvation army?  This short video explains...



Fragment 2:   Donut Music
About 20 years ago, I wrote a song that is not specifically about donuts but chronicles a relationship that takes place at a Krispy Kreme.  I called it the wall of glaze as a tribute to the glaze waterfall that engulfs the donuts on the donut assempbly line there.

Here are the lyrics

The Wall of Glaze  
Lyrics by Dave Roller
Music by Jeff Half Dozen (actually Jeff Six, but half dozen has a more donut themed approach)

It was our first date
On a Friday night
She got a blueberry donut and a medium Sprite
She looked so good and I stood amazed
That I could lose my heart at the wall of glaze.

At the Krispy Kreme
At the Wall of Glaze
Just a memory of my younger days
Of how she looked so good
And how I stood amazed
That I could lose my heart
At The Wall of Glaze

End of senior year
Going separate ways
I was off to the army
Her to the college days
We promised to write every week
It would be like we never went away
How we cried and cried at The Wall of Glaze

At the Krispy Kreme
At The Wall of Glaze
Just a memory of my younger days
Of how we promised to write every week
Like we never went away
But the tears fell like rain
At The Wall of Glaze

Well you know the story
Left a boy came back a man
And I wrote her in my letters
Things I still don't understand
Oh my love for her just grew and grew
I was longing for that day
When I'd ask for her hand at The Wall of Glaze

So on a Friday night
Got down on my knees
Put a ring on her finger
Said will you marry me please
She said I'm sorry
But you were just a passing phase
And she broke my heart at The Wall of Glaze

At the Krispy Kreme
At The Wall of Glaze
It's the end of the story
Not the starting page
I put a ring on her finger
She said "Boy, you're just a phase"
And she broke my heart at The Wall of Glaze

Now I sit alone
On a Friday night
With a blueberry donut
And it don't feel right
I know I shouldn't be here
But I feel trapped in a cage
Since she broke my heart at The Wall of Glaze

At the Krispy Kreme
Called The Wall of Glaze
Just a memory
Of my younger days
I know I shouldn't be here
I feel trapped in a cage
since I lost my heart, since she broke my heart, now that we're apart
At The Wall of Glaze.

Fragment 3 Free Donuts

The aforementioned Krispy Kreme was giving away free donuts today.  Dunkin Donuts was giving away 1 free donut if you bought a drink, which was fine if you were getting a drink.  If you were not all the drinks cost more than one donut so it would not have been worth the trip.

We did not get any free donuts today, but you can enter here to win free donuts a year from Entenmanns.

For more Friday Fragments click here.

Next Time: Summer Book Review

You can find this post at both Home School Dad and Your Basic Dave where I am posting concurrently over the summer.

Home School Dad Flashback: Because they're nouns....

This summer is the last summer I will be posting here at Home School Dad, as I announced yesterday.  So over this summer I will be reposting  at HSD and YBD some of the previous posts.  This was one of the first posts I did back in 2009 . . .



Home School Dad: Because they're nouns....: A noun is a person, place, or thing!

Next Time: Summer Book Review

Your Basic Dave an Intro

When I went back to work in 2013 and stopped being the everyday home educucator.  I  began to think whether I would still blog and what I would blog about.  I opened this blog, but only posted one time. . I have since deleted that post.  I wrote at that time that " If our family ever does stop homeschooling.  I intend YBD to become my main blog. "  As I announced in the recent HSD, we have stopped homeschooling, at least for a sesaon.  I am in the process of mothballing HSD, and will be posting here and at HSD concurrently through the summer.  In September, I will be posting only here.

What can you expect at YBD?  You can expect your basic Dave.  Funny.  Crazy.  Sarcastic.  Eclectic, Encouraging,  Absent Minded.  I am not sure exactly what this blog will look like in the next few months and years.  But as Kermit and Fozzie like to sing, getting there is half the fun, come share it with me.

I have to be moving right along. Later Gators.

Next Time:  Nouns.